Global construction's carbon footprint projected to double by 2050
A paper published in science journal Nature has predicted that the carbon footprint of the global construction industry is set to double by 2050.
Projected trends outlined in the recent article in Nature revealed that the construction industry's global emissions are predicted to at least double by 2050 based on current trends.
According to the study, this rise is likely to breach goals outlined in the Paris Agreement unless the industry sees "rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions".
Signed in 2016, the Paris Agreement seeks to limit a global temperature rise to 2 degrees celsius – or preferably 1.5 degrees – above pre-industrial levels, although data reveals goal this is likely to be breached by 2030.
"Growth trajectories showing no sign of deceleration"
The report, written by a team of researchers from Europe and China, outlines that the carbon footprint of the construction industry alone could account for all the carbon within this goal.
"Our analysis shows that even if emissions from all other industries were reduced to zero, the construction carbon footprint alone would be enough to use up all remaining carbon budgets for 1.5 degrees celsius," the report writes.
According to the study, the growth in carbon produced by construction will be is fuelled by "material-related inputs" of the industry, which refer to carbon-heavy materials like cement, bricks and metals.
Despite concerns over these material-related emissions, the report stated that "growth trajectories showing no sign of deceleration".
Carbon-heavy materials account for half of industry emissions
In 2022, over half of the construction industry's emissions stemmed from these high-carbon materials, while glass, plastics, chemicals, and bio-based materials contributed six per cent.
The remaining 37 per cent is a result of transport, services, machinery and on-site activities.
This rise in the use of carbon-heavy materials contributes to projections in construction-related carbon footprints globally, for which India, Africa, and the Middle East are expected to see the greatest increase.
Contrastingly, developed economies like North America, Europe and Australia are projected to remain relatively stable, while China has been predicted a drop in its carbon footprint due to an expected population decline.
A "material revolution" is needed to reach climate goals
The report highlights how the projected rise in the world's population to 9.7 billion by 2050 will lead to the need for additional housing and infrastructure.
"The tension lies in how to align the carbon cost of the global built environment with global climate commitments while at the same time providing the essential infrastructure for a growing population," the report states.
To address this challenge, the report outlines that a "structural transformation of the construction industry is urgently needed", with a "material revolution" and scaled deployment of low-carbon alternatives critical to tackling a "deep structural inertia" and aligning the industry with global climate goals.
In other climate-related news, Dezeen recently reported on the potential of rubble clearance in Gaza to result in 90,000 tonnes of carbon emissions and the UK Green Building Council warned that British buildings are "not ready for extreme weather".
The top image is by Josue Isai Ramos Figueroa.
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